I recently read the CBS version of the bubble watch, (here) and I thought it was pretty well done. Kudos to Brian De Los Sanntos for putting the whole thing together. Based on what I saw there, I put together a "bottom up" elimination scheme, leaving behind the teams to make the field. Since there are 5 teams from nontraditional powers worthy of autobids, if they win their conference tourneys each one would "add a slot" up to 20 of the 26 teams. There are a bunch of games this weekend whose outcomes will narrow the field.
My first six out, to get the bubble teams down to 20, are as follows:
1. loser of Dayton - St. Joseph's. The winner should be able to squeeze in with a good A 10 tournament run, but the loser is out.
2. Western Kentucky. After being swept by South Alabama and falling to third in the Sun Belt, they're done.
3. Southern Illinois. They blew their chance short of an MVC crown.
4. loser of Arizona-Oregon. Arizona sports the number 1 SOS but if they lose to Oregon I don't see how they've done enough with it. Oregon needs this game even more.
5. loser of Florida - Kentucky. There might be room for both, but I doubt it. Play-in game weeks ahead of schedule.
6. Syracuse or Villanova. I don't think there's enough room in the BE tournament for two teams to put together the kinds of runs these teams each need. They'd practically need to play for the title, and I don't see that happening. If this weekend goes a certain way, they could face each other Wednesday night in the first round instead.
So, that would get it down to a group of 20 teams, assuming Butler, BYU, Drake, Memphis, and Xavier all cut down some nets. But wait! One by one they all lost their tournaments! Oh no! Then I think the following teams would be out:
7. Maryland or VT. Much like the Big East tournament, the ACC only has room for one (at most) bubble-saving run. I don't see two of the top seeds going down to these two teams.
8-12. This is a near tie between, in no particular order:
Rhode Island. Too many losses too fresh in the minds of the committee.
Whoever fared better out of Syracuse/Villanova. Both of these teams need a good run, and it's possible even the better of the two doesn't cut it.
Arizona State. That loss to Oregon may have done them in if too many surprises happen in the conference tournaments.
UAB. They'd better beat Memphis if they want in.
Ohio State. Not impressed even after the win over Purdue. Another team that had better surprise this weekend.
That gets us down to 15, actually 14 because it was hard to separate teams 8-12 on my list. I would say that New Mexico and UNLV, in that order, had better avoid disappointments or they're in the next-most trouble.
So, the 15 in would then be: Massachusetts, Arkansas, West Virginia, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Illinois State, Mississippi, winner of Dayton-St. Joseph's, Winner of Arizona-Oregon, winner of Florida-Kentucky, Virginia Tech (or Maryland, but my bet is on the Hokies), UNLV, New Mexico, and someone from that 8-12 mess above.
Now, that group doesn't necessarily have the best 15 resumes of the mess right now, but some of the teams with slightly better profiles at the moment will necessarily lose between now and Selection Sunday by virtue of head-to-head matchups.
Posted on: March 7, 2008 8:14 pm
Category: NCAAB
Tags: Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Baylor, Bubble watch, Dayton, Florida, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, NCAA tournament, New Mexico, Ohio State, Oregon, Rhode Island, Southern Illinois, St. Joseph's, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, UNLV, Villanova, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Western Kentucky
Posted on: February 27, 2008 9:52 pm
Phew!
As we've known all year, Big East wins don't come easy. In a game that was a must-win for the Panthers, they managed to get it done. It came down to the wire, though. This just in: Ronald Ramon needs to start shooting well again. When he clanks 'em (as he has been lately) Pitt struggles. They are in general settling too much on ill-advised threes.
No time has it been more evident to me than now how tough it is to win games in the Big East. Pitt this year suffered a home loss to the worst team in the league, a loss at Cincinnati who is now 13-14 overall, and a three-game losing streak to three ranked teams. Only one of the ranked teams had an easy time with Pitt. Tonight, Pitt struggled to keep ahead of the Bearcats and could've easily lost to them for a second time.
The most frustrating thing is, four of the top five teams in the Big East could've fallen to Pitt easily, but only one did. Pitt won against Georgetown, led by 7 at the half @Connecticut (and lost by seven but it only got that wide in the final 2 minutes), led by 11 late against Notre Dame (who then got absurdly hot in the final 6 or 8 minutes and won by 12), and got a bit hosed on their own court by Louisville (I don't complain about officiating that often, but this is one Pitt deserved). Only Marquette beat Pitt convincingly, and kudos to them. Tom Crean knows how to beat Pittsburgh.
I shouldn't complain much. What it tells me is that after Cook and Fields got hurt (I know he's been back, but it isn't the same as having had him all season would be) it left Pitt as about the sixth best team in the league (1-4 against the top 5 says so to me). They could easily climb back higher than that if they get used to playing this rotation again. Then again, in a league this tough they could be destined for only 1 more win, an early out in the BE tourney, and an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAAs. It's an interesting, but nerve-racking, season.
No time has it been more evident to me than now how tough it is to win games in the Big East. Pitt this year suffered a home loss to the worst team in the league, a loss at Cincinnati who is now 13-14 overall, and a three-game losing streak to three ranked teams. Only one of the ranked teams had an easy time with Pitt. Tonight, Pitt struggled to keep ahead of the Bearcats and could've easily lost to them for a second time.
The most frustrating thing is, four of the top five teams in the Big East could've fallen to Pitt easily, but only one did. Pitt won against Georgetown, led by 7 at the half @Connecticut (and lost by seven but it only got that wide in the final 2 minutes), led by 11 late against Notre Dame (who then got absurdly hot in the final 6 or 8 minutes and won by 12), and got a bit hosed on their own court by Louisville (I don't complain about officiating that often, but this is one Pitt deserved). Only Marquette beat Pitt convincingly, and kudos to them. Tom Crean knows how to beat Pittsburgh.
I shouldn't complain much. What it tells me is that after Cook and Fields got hurt (I know he's been back, but it isn't the same as having had him all season would be) it left Pitt as about the sixth best team in the league (1-4 against the top 5 says so to me). They could easily climb back higher than that if they get used to playing this rotation again. Then again, in a league this tough they could be destined for only 1 more win, an early out in the BE tourney, and an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAAs. It's an interesting, but nerve-racking, season.
Category: NCAAB
Posted on: February 22, 2008 7:02 am
Edited on: February 22, 2008 7:07 am
Pens, yinz!
OK, I can't stand the word "yinz," but I haven't been to Pittsburgh in too long.
Now to the topic at hand: I've been trying to get into hockey, and since I was at school in Pittsburgh for the previous five years I decided to follow the Penguins. It seems like I'm being a fair-weather fan, but I swear it had nothing to do with their success. My timing was just extremely lucky. Last year's winning sure made it easy to become an involved fan though, I won't dispute that.
This season, though, coincided with my moving on from the Pittsburgh area. Couple that with the Pen's moderate start and the NHL's terrible TV contracts, and it was hard to keep following at first. I still counted myself as a fan, just not a very good one. Then an amazing chain of events happened, albeit rooted in disappointing injuries. First Marc-Andre Fleury went down. But wait! Ty Conklin stepped in and protected the net like it was his child. Crosby and Malkin turned it on too, and all of a sudden the Pens bolted into first place in a VERY tough division.
Cue the next bad news: almost as soon as the Pens grabbed the division lead, wunderkid Sidney Crosby was sidelined with a broken leg. It looked like the Penguins were sure to fade, but if only they could play about even without him and keep their heads above water they could make another run when he got back. They looked a little shaky without him at first, being shut out in the game in which he was injured and then going 1-1-1 in the next 3. Evgeni Malkin stepped it up, though, and the Penguins' scoring didn't really suffer. In fact, since the injury (not counting the game in which he was hurt and played for a period) they are 9-4-2, notching 20 points (behind 49 goals) in 15 games. They're also 7-2-1 in their last 10, tied for 3rd-best in the NHL over that span. Only New Jersey and Dallas have better marks in that category. That's also been enough to keep them tied with the Devils for first place in the Atlantic.
Good teams respond well to injury. Great teams shrug them off sometimes and keep on succeeding. Which are the Penguins? It's hard to say thus far, but if they keep it up for another couple of weeks and get to the stretch at full health, watch out. The rest of the league should pay close attention to this team (as I'm sure they are). The way this team has plugged huge holes and rallied around their new (temporary?) leaders could be the greatest NHL story in years.
Now to the topic at hand: I've been trying to get into hockey, and since I was at school in Pittsburgh for the previous five years I decided to follow the Penguins. It seems like I'm being a fair-weather fan, but I swear it had nothing to do with their success. My timing was just extremely lucky. Last year's winning sure made it easy to become an involved fan though, I won't dispute that.
This season, though, coincided with my moving on from the Pittsburgh area. Couple that with the Pen's moderate start and the NHL's terrible TV contracts, and it was hard to keep following at first. I still counted myself as a fan, just not a very good one. Then an amazing chain of events happened, albeit rooted in disappointing injuries. First Marc-Andre Fleury went down. But wait! Ty Conklin stepped in and protected the net like it was his child. Crosby and Malkin turned it on too, and all of a sudden the Pens bolted into first place in a VERY tough division.
Cue the next bad news: almost as soon as the Pens grabbed the division lead, wunderkid Sidney Crosby was sidelined with a broken leg. It looked like the Penguins were sure to fade, but if only they could play about even without him and keep their heads above water they could make another run when he got back. They looked a little shaky without him at first, being shut out in the game in which he was injured and then going 1-1-1 in the next 3. Evgeni Malkin stepped it up, though, and the Penguins' scoring didn't really suffer. In fact, since the injury (not counting the game in which he was hurt and played for a period) they are 9-4-2, notching 20 points (behind 49 goals) in 15 games. They're also 7-2-1 in their last 10, tied for 3rd-best in the NHL over that span. Only New Jersey and Dallas have better marks in that category. That's also been enough to keep them tied with the Devils for first place in the Atlantic.
Good teams respond well to injury. Great teams shrug them off sometimes and keep on succeeding. Which are the Penguins? It's hard to say thus far, but if they keep it up for another couple of weeks and get to the stretch at full health, watch out. The rest of the league should pay close attention to this team (as I'm sure they are). The way this team has plugged huge holes and rallied around their new (temporary?) leaders could be the greatest NHL story in years.
Category: NHL
Posted on: February 17, 2008 10:13 am
Orioles best case scenario part 1
Part I: Overall results and standings
I am going to consolidate here my thoughts from a lot of threads on the Orioles board. I will later break it down by infield, outfield, starters, 'pen, and bench. I am cautiously optimistic about this rebuilding project, in that I don't think it will necessarily translate to a 100-loss season or two before we get good.
This year, I think best-case scenario the Orioles will go 76-86, or something like that. 10 games under is a reasonable goal for a group of young guys with somewhat limited veteran leadership. I want to wait to evaluate things piece by piece until we know if Roberts is with us out of training camp, though. The
I am going to consolidate here my thoughts from a lot of threads on the Orioles board. I will later break it down by infield, outfield, starters, 'pen, and bench. I am cautiously optimistic about this rebuilding project, in that I don't think it will necessarily translate to a 100-loss season or two before we get good.
This year, I think best-case scenario the Orioles will go 76-86, or something like that. 10 games under is a reasonable goal for a group of young guys with somewhat limited veteran leadership. I want to wait to evaluate things piece by piece until we know if Roberts is with us out of training camp, though. The